Current consensus assumes hard-to-find IT and programming expertise is primary in facilitating the analyses required to identify and anticipate cyber incidents and events. However, cultivating predictive skill through forecasting tournaments provides an edge that widens the talent pool. Forecasting tournaments and training provide not only useful early warning diagnostics for cyber analysis and policy makers, they also mitigate biases and negative traits like overconfidence and enhance necessary analytical traits like digital literacy and quantitative estimation. Importantly, tournament results support the finding that subject matter expertise is separate from predictive expertise—thus underscoring the potential for training non-IT specialists the forecasting skills that can help address a chronic global cyber skills shortage.

Details

time: 12:20

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